Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
